The California Energy Commission (CEC) retained MathPro Inc. to conduct a series of technical and economic analyses bearing on the production of cleaner burning fuels for use in California.

One analysis involved conducting a set of refinery modeling runs to assess the technical and economic implications in the California refining sector of the California Phase 3 Reformulated Gasoline (CaRFG3) standard adopted by the California Air Resources Board (CARB) on December 9, 1999. This standard includes a new version of the California Predictive Model, used for certification of CaRFG3 gasoline batches.

This analysis served to complete an earlier analysis conducted for CEC by extending it to encompass the actual Phase 3 Predictive Model that CARB adopted. We applied our refinery LP modeling systems (ARMS) to analyze a series of cases incorporating the Phase 3 Predictive Model and representing a range of scenarios comparable to those in the original analysis.

Results of the analysis included estimates of the refining cost and investment requirements in the California refining sector associated with the CaRFG3 standard.

Another analysis addressed development of a new “base case” of the ARMS model of the California refining sector that incorporates additions and enhancements developed in this engagement. The new base incorporates

• The California Phase 3 Reformulated Gasoline standard (CaRFG3);
• The Beta 3 Predictive Model;
• Estimated supplies and prices of imported blendstocks in 2003, including ethanol, alkylate, iso-octane/iso-octene, isomerate, and any other blendstocks that might be appropriate for producing CaRFG3;
• Gasoline and desulfurization technologies (especially advanced technologies) likely to be used by California refineries post-2003;
• Representative average properties of gasoline and distillate blendstocks currently in use in the California refining sector; and
• Refining capacity, by process type, in the California refining sector; and

The initial version of the new base case reflected mainly MathPro Inc.’s knowledge and resources. The final version is to incorporate information and insights to be gained in discussions with individual California refiners and in a CEC-sponsored survey of California refineries.