Ford Motor Company commissioned MathPro Inc. to estimate the effects in the European Union (EU) refining sector of a 10 ppm cap on the sulfur content of both gasoline and diesel fuel, starting January 2005. The analysis addressed

• Average refining cost;
• Refinery hydrogen consumption; and
• Refinery CO2 emissions

We analyzed the effects of the 10 ppm sulfur standard using a refinery LP model developed with our refinery modeling system (ARMS) and configured to represent operations of the EU refining sector in the aggregate. The analysis considered two 10 ppm sulfur scenarios for 2005:

• No change in gasoline and diesel specifications, except for the 10 ppm sulfur standard; and
• A ban on MTBE blending in gasoline, coupled with relaxation of the gasoline aromatics standard from 35 vol% to 42 vol%

We found the 10 ppm sulfur standard to be technically feasible with existing sulfur control technologies but that it would incur higher refining costs and entail higher refinery hydrogen consumption and CO2 emissions than the 50 ppm standard. In particular, the EU refining sector’s CO2 emissions under a 10 ppm sulfur standard would be about 4% higher than under the current 50 ppm sulfur standard (or about 5% higher if MTBE blending were banned).