For the World Bank and the Danish Environmental Protection Agency, MathPro Inc. conducted a series of studies to analyze the cost, technical implications, and institutional impediments to lead phase-out in Central and Eastern European countries.

In one study, sponsored by the World Bank, MathPro Inc. demonstrated a methodology for rigorous analysis of the economic and technical consequences of lead phase-out in, with Romania as the subject country. MathPro Inc. conducted a techno-economic analysis of lead phase-out in the Romanian refining sector, using its refinery modeling system, ARMS. The analysis concentrated on Romania's four large inland refineries, which account for virtually all of Romania's domestic gasoline consumption. The analysis consisted of three steps:

• Develop technical data characterizing the refineries of interest
• Calibrate ARMS to replicate recent operating results of these refineries
• Represent the technical and economic performance of the refineries in various lead reduction scenarios (including total phase-out)

Results of the analysis suggested that the Romanian refineries could reduce the lead content of leaded gasoline to the current European Union standard (0.15 g/L) with existing process capacity and no significant increase in refinery operating costs. The analysis also developed marginal cost functions for further reductions of lead content (down to zero), under various technical and policy scenarios.