MathPro developed for EPA’s Office of Transportation and Air Quality (OTAQ) a detailed spreadsheet-based model of the U.S. refining sector, disaggregated by PADD and individual refinery, for EPA’s use in assessing, at the refinery-specific level, regulatory options for further control of the benzene content of gasoline.

In developing the model, MathPro used refining process representations, refinery product out-turns, gasoline blendstock properties, capital costs, and benzene control options drawn from MathPro’s ARMS refinery modeling system.

The spreadsheet model that is the primary work product of this assignment produces estimates of the benzene control that individual refineries can achieve using alternative process options (e.g., benzene extraction, benzene saturation, removal of benzene precursors from reformate feed) and the costs associated with each option.

In the analysis, the model was first calibrated to actual refinery industry performance in 2002 and then applied to assess alternative benzene control standards and estimate the technical feasibility and refining costs associated with each standard, by region and by refinery. Finally, the model was applied to estimate the economic effects of possible benzene credit trading programs.