MathPro Inc. carried out a series of analyses for the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to estimate (i) ethanol demand functions, under various scenarios, for the U.S. refining sector as a whole, (ii) ethanol demand functions in specific regions of the U.S., including California in particular, and (iii) the sensitivity of these ethanol demand functions to possible changes in total U.S. oxygenate production and to the possible repeal of the 1 psi waiver for ethanol blending in conventional gasoline.

This series of studies delineated the future range of ethanol's value to U.S. refiners, both as direct gasoline blendstock and as feedstock for producing ETBE (an oxygenated blendstock) and identified the economic factors that most strongly influence ethanol's refining value.