Equistar Chemical Co. retained MathPro Inc. to estimate the refining values in PADD 3 of various gasoline blendstocks, once the EPA Tier 2 gasoline sulfur standard (30 ppm average) takes effect.

We used our refinery modeling system (ARMS) to conduct a techno-economic analysis of refining operations in PADD 3. The analysis considered various policy scenarios, including a national MTBE phase-down and a waiver of the oxygen requirement in federal RFG2. It also considered the effects on refining value of a more stringent possible future sulfur standard for gasoline.

The primary results of the analysis were embodied in estimated demand curves (i.e., marginal value/volume relationships) for each gasoline blendstock considered, under each policy scenario.